Bernalillo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXUS65 KABQ 142126
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
326 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 322 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025

- Gusty virga showers may develop Tuesday, especially over the
  higher terrain of western and northern New Mexico. Downburst
  winds and localized blowing dust may occur.

- Another period of very dry and windy conditions is on tap
  Wednesday through Friday with high fire danger and areas of
  blowing dust, especially Thursday.

- Widespread precipitation returns this weekend with highest
  precipitation amounts favoring eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Gusty east canyon winds are likely tonight for Albuquerque and Santa
Fe, otherwise a calm night. Erratic and gusty outflow winds from
virga showers are likely Tuesday across northern and western New
Mexico. Consistent southwest winds bringing breezy to windy
conditions begin Wednesday and continue through Friday, with
Thursday forecast to be the windiest day. Widespread gusts of 45 to
60 miles per hour, with areas of blowing dust are likely. Critical
fire conditions also arise Wednesday through Friday, especially
Thursday. Precipitation is increasingly likely to return this
weekend in the form of valley rain and mountain snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025

High clouds streaming in from the southwest have kept temperatures
down a bit today, but its still warmer than average in most areas
outside of the east where it`s still a bit chilly behind the
backdoor front that went through overnight. That boundary has been
pushed back east of the central mountain chain today, but it will
surge westward again overnight, creating gusty east winds through
the gaps of the central mountain chain. Gusty winds will be
localized to areas downwind of canyons, but the winds still could
create enough blowing dust to reduce air quality overnight into the
morning hours. Southerly winds increase tomorrow as a shortwave
associated with the Low off the southern CA coast ejects inland into
the Four Corners region. There should be enough mid-level moisture
to produce a few gusty showers in northern areas and LIs as low as
-3C suggest a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, with the
best chance in the northern Sangre de Cristo mountains. Any weak
showers should quickly die off in the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Increasing SW flow associated with the sub-tropical jet will
translate to stronger winds on Wednesday afternoon. It will be a
typical breezy Spring afternoon, except temps will be well-above
average (10-15 degrees in most areas). NBM guidance shows that
Roswell has a 97% chance to reach 90F on Wednesday and could
threaten the daily record of 92F. Several other locations will
threaten record highs as well. Blowing dust cannot be ruled out in
dust-prone areas such as Roswell, but slight soil moisture
improvements across eastern NM from the last storm should limit
coverage given the marginal wind speeds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Upper level southwest winds increase across the region Wednesday in
front of an approaching low off the coast of southern CA. Deep mixed
layers throughout much of the late week will allow momentum transfer
to the surface. Gusts from 25-35mph are likely across much of
northeast and southwest NM, with sporadic gusts eclipsing 40mph
possible, especially in higher terrain. Downsloping southwest winds
also bubble up the temperatures in eastern NM on Wednesday, with
highs rising to 10-15F above normal.

The upper low slowly moves eastward Thursday, sending a pocket of
strong mid to upper level winds over the region. 700mb winds are
forecast to peak around 50-55kts over the state, and continued deep
mixing will allow for widespread gusty winds on Thursday. Winds will
be highest along and east of the central mountain chain, where gusts
between 45-60mph have a good chance of occurring. Across the rest
of the region, gusts from 35-50mph are likely. With these strong
winds, especially across eastern NM, blowing dust will be of
concern. Visibilities less than a quarter mile could be observed
in the most dust prone areas, such as in and around Roswell,
leading to hazardous travel conditions. With more than a week
since appreciable precipitation across that region, the blowing
dust may become widespread.

The upper low likely morphs with a more northern low trekking
southward down the Intermountain West on Friday, while also
continuing to overlay 30-40kt 700mb winds across the state. While
winds decrease from Thursday, deep mixing continues to allow gusty
winds to reach the surface, with widespread 25-35mph gusts likely
throughout the state. With pressure heights beginning to fall as
the low closes in on the state, temperatures begin to fall, with
western NM falling below late April normals.

The consolidated low then dives down into northern NM over the
weekend, drawing up Gulf moisture and setting the stage for
precipitation to return in the form of valley rain and mountain
snow. Heavier amounts of precip, potentially up to a few tenths of
an inch, are favored across eastern NM, and also are subject to
influence by a backdoor cold front pushing into the state late
Saturday. There are low chances (10-20%) for thunderstorms across
eastern NM as well with the advancement of the backdoor cold front,
with forecast soundings supporting the potential for gusty outflows
from any storms that may form. Precipitation works to diminish late
Sunday as the low moves eastward away from the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
Gusty east winds in eastern NM and through the gaps of the Rio
Grande Valley will continue to diminish this afternoon, but gap
winds will increase again tonight. Gusts above 35KT are likely
(>50% chance) at both KABQ and KSAF, with the strongest winds
occurring between 09Z and 15Z. Southerly winds will begin to
increase towards the tail end of the TAF period areawide. High
clouds will continue to stream across the state from SW to NE
throughout the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM MDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Moisture increases across the area tonight and tomorrow thanks to a
backdoor front, which will help keep fire weather concerns at bay
until Wednesday. Isolated showers may produce gusty outflow winds in
northern NM tomorrow afternoon and a lightning strike or two cannot
be ruled out over the high terrain where there is just enough
instability and moisture. Wetting rainfall is unlikely with these
showers. Increasing southwest winds out ahead of a Low off the
southern CA coast will create widespread elevated to critical fire
weather on Wednesday, with the highest confidence for rapid fire
spread in northeastern and west-central NM where winds will be
strongest. Winds intensify on Thursday, expanding the coverage of
critical fire weather. A Fire Weather Watch as issued for most of
the area as a result, with the exception of the northern mountains
where fuel status is marginal. The strongest winds (gusts up to 60
mph) are likely in the highlands just east of the central mountain
chain and these areas may see extreme fire weather conditions. Winds
decrease Friday, but another around of critical fire could be on tap
for eastern areas. Moisture finally arrives from the northwest
Friday and expands southeast through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  75  45  78 /   5  30   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  70  34  74 /   5  40  10   0
Cuba............................  42  68  40  76 /   5  30  20   5
Gallup..........................  37  73  33  76 /   5  20   0   0
El Morro........................  42  70  39  74 /  10  30   5   0
Grants..........................  37  75  35  78 /  10  30   5   0
Quemado.........................  42  74  38  77 /   5  10   0   0
Magdalena.......................  48  73  46  79 /  10  10   5   0
Datil...........................  43  72  41  75 /  10  20   0   0
Reserve.........................  37  80  35  79 /   5   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  44  84  42  84 /   5   5   0   0
Chama...........................  35  63  34  66 /   5  50  20   5
Los Alamos......................  45  66  46  74 /   5  30  20   5
Pecos...........................  40  64  42  73 /  10  30  20   5
Cerro/Questa....................  38  65  40  70 /   5  30  10   0
Red River.......................  30  55  36  61 /   5  40  20   5
Angel Fire......................  27  62  32  66 /   5  30  10   5
Taos............................  40  69  35  74 /   5  30  10   0
Mora............................  32  64  37  73 /   5  20  10   0
Espanola........................  45  74  43  81 /   5  20  10   0
Santa Fe........................  45  67  46  74 /  10  30  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  49  71  44  78 /   5  20  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  76  53  82 /  10  20  20   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  78  50  84 /  10  20  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  81  48  87 /  10  20  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  79  50  84 /  10  20  10   0
Belen...........................  49  81  46  87 /  10  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  51  79  49  85 /  10  20  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  48  81  46  87 /  10  20  10   0
Corrales........................  52  80  50  86 /  10  20  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  49  81  47  87 /  10  10  10   0
Placitas........................  46  74  51  80 /  10  20  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  52  79  50  84 /  10  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  53  83  51  90 /  10  10   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  70  46  76 /  10  30  20   5
Tijeras.........................  43  72  47  77 /  10  30  20   5
Edgewood........................  40  71  42  78 /  10  20  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  72  39  79 /  10  20  10   0
Clines Corners..................  35  64  41  74 /  10  10   5   0
Mountainair.....................  41  73  44  78 /  10  10  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  42  73  44  77 /  10  10   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  50  76  48  80 /   5  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  42  67  47  74 /   5  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  32  61  40  73 /   0   5   5   0
Raton...........................  33  68  38  78 /   5  10   5   0
Springer........................  34  67  39  78 /   5   5   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  34  64  39  75 /   5  10   5   0
Clayton.........................  38  67  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  36  65  43  79 /   0   5   5   0
Conchas.........................  41  73  49  86 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  41  69  47  83 /   5  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  42  72  50  84 /   5  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  44  71  48  85 /   5  10   0   0
Portales........................  44  71  48  87 /   5   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  72  49  87 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  51  75  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  45  70  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  42  70  47  84 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-121-123>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...16

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.